It looks like some of the weather we missed out on thru the earlier winter is coming now in the later winter. And maybe into the early spring! There was another couple inches of wet snow and something like a 0.25 inch of rain thru last night. Chance of rain showers thru the mid week on warming temps and an expected area-wide accumulating snow end of week on cooling temps. For now, flows in the Oak are moderate and slightly stained and no icing. Flows in the other area smaller tribs are low and mostly clear with some icy conditions.
With the mid week warm-up, look for flows to be on the rise and opening up some and going off color about thru the mid/end of week. We’ll have to wait and see how much flows will change but it should bring flows up high but not blown. Any future accumulating snow and melt may do that.
Real light fishing pressure today, only one car observed in the parking spots on the Oak. Thru the past weekend we heard of guys getting steelhead hookups nearer the dam including a few good fish. Now some silver browns hooked up too, as has been the case on the smaller tribs like to the east. Downstream spots on the Oak for the past weekend may have been tougher on what was dropping and clearing flows, although we did not hear from many guys. Good chances for fresh fish action ahead for this beginning part of March especially as higher and more stained flows may come and go. It may just not be the big blowout event we’re targeting, but smaller spates of water for now. Stay tuned and keep tabs on the weather and water flows and get out there when you can. Spring will offer up only so many cold water chances!
Not much precipitation was realized for the past weekend, so all the trib flows are on the drop and clearing for now. Flows in the Oak are about medium and slightly stained with about 2 ft of visibility. The other area smaller waterways are about moderate with water color of about 2+ ft of visibility. Chance of rain/snow showers for the mid part of this week with forecasted mixed bag precipitation of rain, sleet and snow thru the end part of the week. Chance of icing in select areas. It’s a difficult forecast to predict what may happen to trib conditions but any over-the-all colder temps that will come along with the icing or snow should continue the dropping and clearing trend in the waterways to moderate in the Oak and low in the smaller waterways. Look for a good water flow window possibly in the Genesee while the Niagara remains a tough pill thanks to a windy open Lake Erie. If there’s significant rain ahead of or instead of the ice/snow, then trib flows could be on the rise and going off color.
Colder temps could bring back some icing conditions especially in the smaller waterways if lower flows prevail. For now on the Oak, anglers seem to be hooking up on a few steelhead nearest the dam that came along with the higher flows of a few weeks ago mixed in with a handful of fresh fish trickling in thru the downstream fast water. A dropping and clearing water scenario is a contrast for what you’d rather see as rising or high flows for best chances at fresh fish migrations. The brown trout action in nearby tribs that was pretty good is a little slower lately thanks to the lower and clearer flows. Any future rise in flows should perk up the action for fresh fish so we’ll hope the upcoming forecast brings that on either with rain or snow and then melt off. Water temps have flirted with 40°F but should slide back with the forecasted colder weather ahead. There seems to be a stalemate between the open Lake temps and the trib water temps thanks to the relatively mild winter. The next significant rise in flows may bring on some fresh steelhead action thru March.
Flows in the Oak are clearing slowly and hanging in somewhere between medium and slightly high. Water color has improved to about 1 plus feet of visibility. Upstream swamp headwater supplies seem brim full so look for flows to be pretty well maintained and on a continued slow clearing. Any future precipitation could raise flows and bring back dirty water color. So for now the drifting and swinging conditions look pretty good. So far we are probably looking at some fish from earlier higher water and new fish trickling in on medium-ish flows instead of one bigger batch of fish on a blow out event. Stay tuned though for any future high water that could really perk things up. The other area smaller tribs have medium flows and slightly stained water color. Good drifting and swinging chances there too with warming water temps and the chance for some fresh fish. There could be fresh steelhead, fresh silver browns or drop back fish. Water temps for now are already in the the high 30's°F on the Oak and probably going higher with the forecasted warmup thru the end of this week. Chance of rain and colder temps and windy conditions for the end of the week but back to relatively mild temps again by the weekend. Fishing pressure is over-the-all pretty light and manageable. With no real winter to come out of and trib and open lake water temps all on the warmer side, who knows for sure how the steelhead gods will play things out over the next couple months?!
More of the up and down temps that we've been experiencing so far this winter. After a quick hit of real cold weather this past weekend, we are back to mild temps that are forecast at least thru this week. Chance of even warmer unseasonable temps for next week. Some rain showers and gloom and breezy conditions today (Tuesday). The showers did not amount to much and there is the chance for more rain showers and wind for the end of the week. Since we are not getting cold temps and/or snow, hopefully we can get rain along with the warm temps to help maintain flows. A big precipitation event that blows out the waterways with a resultant drop down to fishable conditions could be just what we need to kick off spring steelhead action. For now flows in the Oak are moderate – or optimistically almost medium and mostly clear. Good drifts on lighter leads are still scoring some hook ups on some dark and slightly silver fish. There's no part of the driftable or castable or swingable waterway that is frozen over. The other area smaller tribs have a fair amount of icing. Flows are moderate to medium and slightly stained at least where you might be able to find a slot with open flows to drift. Look for those smaller waterways to open back up again slowly like thru the end of this week or weekend. Flows will likely just open up minus any blow out, as long as there is no significant precipitation.