Happy New Year's Eve!
Thanks to a good amount of rain thru yesterday and a little bit of snowmelt, all the area tribs are up. Any of the previous icing like on the smaller waterways has gone away. Flows in the Oak are high and stained consisting of a good head of turbine water. Flows may continue to get a little more stained as dirtier water makes its way thru Lake Alice, but for now the flows are not as dirty as the other area smaller tribs. Those other area smaller tribs have high and dirty flows. Flows should be cresting by about today, at least before the next round of precipitation is expected.
Forecast for today and some of tomorrow is more rain for the WNY south shore of Lake Ontario. Even as points south of the area go over to lake effect snow tomorrow, rain is still expected here. Any more precipitation of just a 0.25 inch or more is likely to keep flows up or flows could go higher and dirtier.
Thru the end of the week a significant cool down is expected (more lake effect snow mainly south of the area) and that cool down could be longer lasting than the typical few days of on and off cold we have been getting.
Fishing pressure is pretty light for now, a few guys out on the Oak and taking advantage of what could be the best fishable window about now before flows may go back up and/or get dirtier. Float guys doing best lately, like at the dam and the downstream slow water. A mix of steelhead and browns. Check out the happy young angler in the pic below!
Merry Coho Christmas! A few Oak Orchard Christmas cohos are around, check out the nice Coho in the pic below. After a few days of actual winter cold temps and some snow, all the area tribs are low and clear and have some icing conditions. Upstream reaches on the Oak are open and some of the downstream frogwater is closing in. Smaller area waterways have more icing. Icing up should continue thru the next day or two and there is 1 – 3 inches of area wide snow forecast tonight. By mid week and end of week there is another warm up forecast and chance for eventual rain or showers by next weekend. Depending on how long the warm up lasts and/or how much future precipitation there may be will affect upcoming trib flows.
For now, there is real light fishing pressure as folks are enjoying family and holiday time and only a few have braved the temps. Look for a few more guys out on warming temps and in between the holidays.
A day or so warm-up for the beginning part of the week after a cold weekend. Doesn’t look like the up and down weather has hurt the steelhead chances on the Oak though – check out the recent nice steelhead pics from the Oak! A warm day today and tonight after a rain shower for end of weekend and chance of slight precipitation again Monday night. After that, dropping temps again for the rest of the week and chance of snow showers.
Flows in all the area tribs have dropped and cleared some and the most recent precipitation is just barely maintaining flows. With the colder future forecast the existing moderate flows could be going to low and clear. There has been some icing in the lower reaches of the smaller waterways and if low flows and cold temps prevail again, that icing could increase.
The better steelhead chances have been on the Oak lately with the relatively higher water flows compared to the smaller waterways. And by early winter or December standards, the action has been good. Some anglers keen enough to target that last of the Canal water feed and additional precipitation have gotten into that Oak action on the float with beads and on the fly even with streamer action. Still hanging on to that 2/3 steelhead and 1/3 brown trout hookup ratio. The occasional Atlantic and Coho are still in the mix too. Steelhead and brown trout action ahead for the early and mid winter period should go more or less as the weather and water flows go. Think warm and wet for good flows or cold and snowy for future flows!
The area received around 0.50 inch of rain plus a little bit of snowmelt thru yesterday. Temps are warm again today in the 40’s°F with chance of rain or showers of around another 0.25 inch tonight. Forecast is for a return to colder temps for the end of week and chance of minor lake effect snows for the WNY south shore of Lake Ontario. Greater accumulations expected as usual south and west of here off Lake Erie and the east end of Lake Ontario.
Flows in all the area tribs are up some. Nothing looks too high or dirty to fish for now and all the waterways are moving out more earlier season weeds and debris. Flows in the Oak are high and slightly stained with 1 – 2 ft of visibility. Flows consist of a good head of turbine water and water color may continue to get a little more stained.
Flows in the the other area smaller tribs are slightly high and stained with about 1 foot of visibility. Smaller waterways are probably already on the drop by about today. Look for flows in the Oak to remain up likely thru the week. All the trib flows should be maintained somewhat from the precipitation and future precipitation at about the time the Canal winter drainage water is played out. That should be a good thing for fresh fish migrations or steelhead chances. Any more future significant precipitation could raise the trib flows up higher and dirtier.
Guys are out today on the Oak so far with unknown success. For the past weekend under light fishing pressure, when flows were a bit lower, anglers were getting a few brown trout hookups and decent steelhead action. These higher flows now should redistribute the browns and possibly move some steelhead farther up the Oak and entice lower river or rivermouth fish to migrate too. By December standards of a typical “in-between” trib fishing time, the conditions are pretty good and hopefully helping to ward off what was looking like a real low water period coming on. The weather giveth and taketh and for now its giving!
A little bit of winter has settled in after what was a good stretch of mild fall temps. Look for highs in the 30’s°F and dropping back at night. The area did just lately get a little bit of lake effect snow on a NW wind change and there is the chance for minor accumulations thru this week and an area wide snow end of week. Temps are forecast to remain seasonably cold.
The WNY south shore of Lake Ontario has no where close to the feet of snow like some other areas – use caution in interpreting Weather Channel lake effect snow prognostications for the Oak Orchard area.
Cold temps have dropped back and cleared up all the trib flows for now. There could be some icing in the smaller waterways especially on snowy days. Water temps are falling and overall fishing pressure is pretty light.
Anglers report working for their hook ups like on the Oak for a few browns and steelhead. Atlantics are still reported. Light line, small presentation, careful float guys are hooking some fish in the overflow pools. We are still looking for some more Atlantic salmon pics from the overflow channel, please forward when you encounter any Atlantics.
The other area tribs are likewise hanging on to fair action like the nice brown trout in the pic below. There isn’t a hungrier or much more willing biter then a post spawn brown trout wondering why he/she left the comfort of the open Lake and all the bait out there!
Canal hydro managers tell us the Canal winter seasonal draining has begun – hastened by the colder weather. So, even though for now, flows are dropping and clearing. We expect all the area trib flows very soon to be on the rise and going off color for something like 7 – 10 days while this slug of water passes. We are unsure at what flow schedule or rate any specific trib will see at this point in time. We do not expect anything to blow out or become unfishable. A good slug of water wouldn’t be a bad thing though to encourage fresh fish migrations or move some stale fish around in the watercourses. After the Canal draining is complete we will be left with natural run of the river flows which without milder temps and precipitation could be exceptionally low.
